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Initially, Trump gave the impression to embrace a resolute stance concerning Ukraine. Following making warnings of "severe repercussions" last August if Putin carried on hindering peace discussions, Trump ultimately enacted major penalties on the Russian two largest energy firms, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move seriously impacted Putin's capacity to fund his aggression in the region.

But, with his recently unveiled comprehensive peace plan for the conflict, reportedly drafted by American and Russian officials without Ukrainian or EU input, the former president has apparently gone back to his pro-Putin stance.

Benefiting Invasion

Trump's plan would essentially benefit the Russian leader for occupying a sovereign nation while placing the country's political freedom in jeopardy. Despite bold statements that "The nation's sovereignty will be upheld", large portions of the proposal in reality undermine that very sovereignty. This constitutes a Moscow's wish would likely be a catastrophe for the nation.

Reflecting his corporate background, the former president seems to treat the Ukrainian conflict as a mere territorial dispute, as if giving Russia a portion of Ukrainian soil will appease the leader. But, Russia's invasion is not simply about dominating a damaged region of industrial-devastated territory in eastern Ukraine. Rather, it is about Ukraine's democracy – and Putin's clear intention to eliminate it so it ceases to acts as an attractive example for the Russian people of the responsible leadership that Putin's increasing authoritarian rule denies them.

Territorial Concessions

While freezing in status the presently divided regions of these areas, Trump's plan would require Ukraine to surrender all of Donetsk region. In addition to benefiting Russia with area that its forces have been unable to capture in over a lengthy period of conflict, this giveaway would leave Ukrainian military defenses critically undermined.

This region is the place of the nation's much-vaunted "defensive line", the fortified defensive positions that constitute a key impediment to Russian advances. The proposal would have Ukraine abandon these positions, giving Russian forces a unobstructed route to the capital in case he later choose to restart the war.

Armed Forces Restrictions

Additionally, in a action that would make future hostilities easier for the Russian military, Trump would mandate the nation to diminish the scale of its armed forces from their existing large number soldiers to a limit of 600,000. Significantly, Trump's plan imposes no such constraints on Russia's military.

In what appears as a concession to Putin's campaign to portray the nation's legitimate administration as extremists, the plan asserts: "All extremist doctrine and actions must be condemned and banned." As if to emphasize this element, it demands that "Ukraine will hold elections in three months" of a peace deal. At the same time, Trump places no condition that the Russian leader risk his authoritarian rule by allowing elections in Russia.

Protection Guarantees

To be sure, the plan has Russia commit not to "enter bordering nations" and to "incorporate in law its stance of peaceful relations towards Europe and Ukraine". However taking into account that Putin has violated similar accords in the previous instances – including the 1994 agreement, in which Russia promised to honor Ukraine's sovereignty in return for giving up its historical nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia committed to a halt in fighting and a return of seized areas in the region to Kyiv – why should anyone trust Russia this time?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on international security guarantees. Although the plan promises a "decisive unified armed reaction" if Russia renew its aggression, and provides that "The nation will receive reliable protection assurances", the details vary from unclear to concerning. The plan would not just deny Ukraine alliance membership but also prohibit alliance nations from stationing troops on Ukrainian territory, effectively blocking the reassurance force, presumptively led by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been counting to deter Russia from rebuilding his diminished forces, rearming, and attacking again.

Global Response

Another supplementary accord according to sources would grant the nation with a Nato-style security guarantee, in which any future "major, planned, and ongoing military assault" by Russia on Ukraine "would be considered as an attack jeopardizing the peace and security of the Western nations." That suggests a military response. Yet unlike a strong Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's best deterrent against future Russian aggression – the credibility of the side agreement would rely on the willingness of Western powers, including Trump, to react with force to Russia's attacks, an action they have {not