‘The Situation is Dire’: War on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Stock.

The repercussions of a conflict being fought nearly 3,000km away are now impacting India's kitchens.

As aerial attacks on Iran impede energy deliveries through the vital shipping lane, stocks of cooking gas are dwindling across India, compelling restaurants to reduce offerings, close earlier and in some cases shut down altogether.

Social media is filled with video clips showing crowds outside LPG distributors across Indian urban and rural areas as concerns over fuel supplies spread. Businesses appear the hardest struck: the sharpest squeeze is in restaurant kitchens.

"The situation is dire. Kitchen fuel simply cannot be found," says a spokesperson of the a major restaurant body.

Most eateries run either on business-grade gas tanks or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the lack of supply are now being noticed across the country. "Numerous restaurants have ceased operations - some in the capital, many in the south. People are adopting traditional burners and electric cookers to keep their operations going."

City-Specific Fallout

In a western metro, media reports say up to a 20% of hospitality businesses are already fully or partly shut as cylinder availability dry up. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some restaurants say their fuel reserves have depleted with little backup. "We can only make coffee and nothing else - it is truly dismal. Businesses are going to suffer," says a business operator in Bengaluru.

Restaurant owners are scrambling to adapt. "Menus are being curtailed, some are opening only for dinner and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are varying as supplies wax and wane. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a fluid situation."

Retailers report a increase in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are selling out quickly.

Official Position

Yet, the government maintains there is no shortage.

India has more than 30 crore domestic LPG users and spokespersons say supplies are being prioritized to households as tensions from the war in the Gulf impact energy markets.

Roughly 60% of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about the vast majority of those consignments pass through the key maritime route, the vital passage now effectively closed by the hostilities.

The oil ministry says that it instructed refineries to increase LPG output for domestic use, lifting domestic production by about a quarter. Business-grade fuel is being allocated for vital industries such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "just and open".

"Unnecessary hoarding and hoarding has been triggered by rumors. The regular refill period for domestic LPG remains about under three days," says a ministry representative.

Growing Panic

Now the anxiety is moving beyond kitchens. On social media, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a lengthy, winding line of scooters outside a gas outlet. "The panic is real," the caption reads.

According to reports from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader fuel supplies may be exaggerated.

India imports 90% of its crude oil. Around 50% of its crude oil imports - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from Gulf countries.

Even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the deficit could be partly made up by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.

Based on maritime intelligence and industry information, increased Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, lessening India's effective shortfall from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently floating on ships in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.

LPG: The Real Vulnerability

The key weakness is kitchen fuel, analysts say.

India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - most of it through the Strait.

Refineries can tweak operations to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a limited rise would only increase domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.

In short: "Crude supply risk can be moderately reduced through varied suppliers. Refined product supply remains largely sufficient. LPG availability is the real variable to watch in the coming weeks."

What may be intensifying the panic on the ground is not just scarcity but patchy deliveries - and the usual problem of panic buying.

An industry representative claims opportunistic profiteering.

"Retailers are taking advantage of the situation - selling fuel on the black market and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and auctioned off."

For now, India's oil supplies may be buffered by worldwide shipping. But in homes across the country, the more pressing concern is simple: how to get the next refill.