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Within the considerable disarray regarding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “run” the country and “seize control of the oil”, a single fact remains evident – this establishes a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the recent overnight operation witnessed its first major military attack on South American land. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” the President stated.

The choice to militarily strike another state and abduct its leader – just a short time after he stated a desire for negotiations – possesses far-reaching consequences. This ought to concern everyone.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have stolen the last election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has indicated that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and brushed aside prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the leadership-stricken government are considerably more radical.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who came to office pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He does not see the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is transforming it into a rogue state.

He is convinced that the United States' strength allows it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: witness the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He asserts that the oil resources of Venezuela means this latest episode “won’t cost us a penny”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came absent any United Nations mandate or congressional approval; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to obliterate them.

Set aside the message this sends to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will almost certainly fuel more reckless actions.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

It is widely rejected the pretext that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is driven by the lure of oil as well as machismo, the ideology of some in his administration, and the quest for a legacy as his standing with the American public falters.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode emphasizes the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could still pressure him to redirect his gaze inward – but escalating insurance prices, public anxiety over the economy and ongoing controversies fuel his desire for external drama.

It has been less than 12 months into his presidential term. Other governments may live to repent if they fail to speak up today, considering the potential next target.